Sometimes it might be your
setup identification ...

Other times, it's just the market. Fifty percent of portfolio gains are due to the underlying market movements (beta). The rest is down to a manager's stock-picking abilities (alpha).

We see similar phenomena in forex trading. Many traders find it hard to believe that getting out of the trade is harder than getting in. In general terms, the entry level is based on an historical level against which some sort of risk assessment is made. Usually the internal dialogue goes something like at what level will I know my view is wrong; how close can I get to that level without missing the entry should my hunch come true?

Getting out requires some sort of assessment of the future. Something none of us can do. In the mixed sentiment environment, you would experience an intra-day move equivalent to 10% to 15% of average true range. Little else can be expected since the other Yen crosses (in this case) cap the Euro's move against the Yen.

However if you get some 'beta', the move may be 40% of the average true range or more. The Euro significantly outperforms the Yen because there is a general Yen sell-off against the USD, GBP, CAD and AUD.

Learning points: don't hold out for the 'regulation 20' in a mainly alpha market and tailor profit expectations with regards to the average true range, correlating pairs and how far the market has already moved that day.

Regards
Morty Sill
London